A MIND FOREVER VOYAGING THROUGH STRANGE SEAS OF THOUGHT, ALONE


This is my second blog.

My first blog chronicled my experiences over three years caring for my dad as he lived through and finally died from Alzheimer's. That is the book that is for sale.

This second blog kind of chronicles of life, what it is like to start your life over in your late 50's. After caretaking, you are damaged, file bankruptcy, and the world doesn't care what you did. After 8 months of unemployment, you wake each day knowing the world doesn't want you. Finally you do find a job, 5 weeks before homelessness, but doing what you did 30 years ago and getting paid what you did 30 years ago. So this is starting over.



The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.

Friday, September 27, 2013

HOW WE THINK AND FIFTY YEARS

One of the more fascinating debates with no answer is a statistical debate that goes as follows:

You have a silver dollar, unbiased, that you are going to flip 10 times.  The first nine times you flip the coin, it comes up heads.  What is the probability on the last flip it will be heads.

Most people say 50/50.  And that is true; and it is not.

First of all, in this example, we are assuming total unbiased in flipping the coin but that is an erroneous assumption.  Tests have shown that the side facing up when you flip will more often come up than the down side, something to do with maximum flipping speeds, heights, and all that kind of stuff that people with too much time on their hands figured out.  With tax dollars, I'm sure.

When you quickly answer 50/50 on that 10th flip, you are looking at the event in a vacuum, ignoring history.  The probability of flipping 10 heads in a row is like .00097 or .5 to the 10th power, yet that is at the beginning of the series of flips only; with each flip coming up heads, the odds become greater until you reach 50/50 on the final flip.  In other words, after flipping the first five times and coming up heads, the probability of getting ten in a row is now .5 to the 5th power.

But let me ask you this; if on just one flip of a coin and you bet 10 bucks on heads, would you feel as confident if it was the 10th flip in a row that you were betting on that last flip?

Think of it this way, if you insist the odds are 50/50 on that 10th flip being heads after nine previous flips came up heads, you are what Las Vegas absolutely loves in a gambler, cause they will beat you every time.  But then that is not the best example since it assumes Las Vegas is playing things straight.  But you see the point.

You may argue, statistically, that after the nine flips, the 10th flip is 50/50, but intuitively, you wouldn't bet a dime on that outcome.

Well, it's coming up on the 50 year anniversary of the day, the music died.  Lots of books and interviews coming up about the Kennedy assassination and I will read one of them, Jerome Corsi's new book.  Corsi is a good researcher and I've heard him interviewed this week on C2C and Hagamann.

Back in the late 60's, barely after turning 10, I remember a 60 Minutes episode showing some Vietnam vet sniper trying to fire the bolt action rifle Oswald is said to have used and he couldn't do it in the time allotted.  That made an impression on my brain that something was up with the whole thing. Over the years, I've read a few books, did some internet research, and still think Oswald was a total patsy.  Here is a little factoid; did you know they knew Oswald shot the cop in Oak Cliff because he'd dropped his wallet?  Which really helped iron things up since he also dropped a wallet in the Book Depository.  We all carry two wallets, don't we?  Or the cop who found the gun in the Book Depository immediately recognized it as a Mauser with auto feeding of bullets, except it was later changed to the Italian bolt action rifle?  There are just tons of little things that, in this case, provide sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis.

Go to youtube and search for JFK videos.  There is a great one you probably haven't seen, of looking at a distance towards the road the car is going down, on Jackie's side, and after the shots you see all those people pointing and running up the grassy knoll towards the shooter who you can see running away from the wall.  Never saw that, huh.  Blew my mind when I found it.

Fifty years.  The day LBJ, Nixon, and G.H.W. Bush were all in Dallas, though Bush doesn't recall where he was when Kennedy was shot.  Crap, I was in Kindergarden and remember that day.  If you were born in or before 58, you will remember where you were when JFK was shot and where you were on 9/11.  Burned into your brain forever.

Too bad JFK.  The last president who stood up to the CIA, the military industrial complex, and the federal reserve.  If he hadn't been killed, the CIA would have been broken up, the FED would have been disbanded, and we would not have lost 50,000 men and women in Vietnam.  Not sure what we would have gotten in return, but could it have been much worse?  The day, the music, died.

He had white horses
And ladies by the score
All dressed in satin
And waiting by the door

Oh, what a lucky man he was
Oh, what a lucky man he was

White lace and feathers
They made up his bed
A gold covered mattress
On which he was led

Oh, what a lucky man he was
Oh, what a lucky man he was

He went to fight wars
For his country and his king
Of his honor and his glory
The people would sing

Oh, what a lucky man he was
Oh, what a lucky man he was

A bullet had found him
His blood ran as he cried
No money could save him
So he laid down and he died

Oh, what a lucky man he was




Emerson Lake and Palmer